Disaster Preparedness: Riskiest Places for Severe Weather

How prepared are you for severe weather?

Climate change is impacting our planet on biological, social, and economic levels, and it’s becoming a more urgent topic by the day. This increase in severe weather events has caused homeowners insurance premiums to surge and left homeowners more vulnerable to natural disasters.

In 2023 alone, the U.S. saw a whopping 28 separate climate events causing more than $1 billion in damages to homes, businesses, and communities. These included nineteen severe storms like tornadoes and hailstorms, four catastrophic floods, two tropical cyclones, one wildfire event, one extreme winter cold wave, and one drought.  

Certain areas are more vulnerable to climate events than others, and some have felt the brunt of these impacts over the past decade, but where are Americans the most at risk for severe weather and natural disasters?

To determine where Americans are most at risk, we analyzed data from more than 3,000 counties across the country in all 50 states. Our analysis examined key metrics such as community resilience, social vulnerability, and overall risk for natural disasters, drawing data from the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). 

Nationwide Cost of Natural Disasters

When comparing the cost of natural disasters, the price tag has increased exponentially since 1980. 

Back then, the number of inflation-adjusted billion-dollar climate disaster events was just three events. However, since 2020, there have been at least 18 separate billion-dollar disaster events per year. In 2023, the most recent complete year on record, 28 separate events occurred, which is the most on record, according to NCEI.

Many “billion-dollar” weather and climate disaster events grossly surpassed the billion-dollar mark – the total cost of disaster relief in 2023 came out to $92.9 billion collectively. It’s just a drop in the bucket compared to what’s been spent over the years. In the past decade, 180 separate billion-dollar climate disasters have cost more than $1.25 trillion nationwide, while the cost of all 383 events which have taken place between 1980 and 2024 exceeds $2.72 trillion.

Each type of disaster event comes with a different price tag. Hurricanes are the costliest weather events in the U.S., totaling $689.4 billion in damages from 2014-2024. Severe storms have cost less than half that, with $256.1 billion in damages since 2014, and wildfires have cost $106 billion since 2014.

Another cost is far more urgent. Between 2014 and 2024, hurricanes have caused 3,712 deaths, an average of 337 deaths per year. 

Cost of Natural Disasters by State

When it comes to the cost of natural disasters by state, some states are shelling out hundreds of billions more than others. Disasters in Texas and Florida have been the most expensive, with both states experiencing more than $200 billion in damages from 2014 to 2024. California and Louisiana follow close behind, with 10-year climate costs of $100-$200 billion. 

Flanking Florida, Georgia and North Carolina both spent $20-$50 billion on climate disaster costs. Some inlying states also bear sizable cost burdens, notably Colorado and Iowa, which both have a 10-year disaster expenditure record between $20-$50 billion. 

New Hampshire and Maine have the lowest climate disaster expenditures. Both states have avoided the billion-dollar mark, spending between $250-$500 million on climate-related events over the last 10 years, according to NOAA.

Least Prepared Places for Natural Disasters

How prepared is your city in the event of a natural disaster? 

We analyzed data from FEMA to determine which counties are most and least prepared for natural disasters based on three metrics: community resilience, social vulnerability, and the inherent risk of disaster events in each area. 

Community resilience refers to the ability of a community to anticipate hazards, adapt to changing conditions, and recover rapidly. Areas with high social vulnerability, which includes high poverty, overcrowded households, and lack of vehicle access, can experience disproportionate rates of death, injury or disruption because of a natural disaster.  

Overall, locations at higher risk of loss in population and dollars to infrastructure should approach preparedness differently.

According to these metrics of preparedness, four of the five most at-risk counties in America are in the state of California. Elsewhere, the Houston, Texas area (Harris County) ranks second on the list. 

#1. Los Angeles, California (Los Angeles County)

Los Angeles County has an exceedingly low community resilience score (19.67 of a possible 100), which is one of the lowest among counties with a population of at least 200,000 or more, according to FEMA. In terms of overall risk, Los Angeles County scores 100 out of 100, making it the riskiest locale in the nation. The county’s expected annual loss to weather and natural disasters is $3,916,212,454, which is the highest in the nation.

#2. Houston, Texas (Harris County)

The climate flip flopping that Houston contends with seems counter to natural law – from flooding to drought, the city’s risk score is very high (99.97 of 100), according to FEMA. Unfortunately, Houston’s community resilience score is even lower than Los Angeles’s (just 12.73 of 100), and the city’s vulnerability score is high (89.53 of 100). The county’s expected annual loss to weather and natural disasters is $2,220,152,081.

#3. Riverside, California (Riverside County)

Along with being highly susceptible to flash floods and mudslides, Riverside’s population is highly vulnerable (82.97 of 100), according to FEMA. The county also has a relatively low community resilience rating of 27.43, and an overall “very high” risk rating, according to FEMA. Overall, the county faces an expected annual loss of $1,190,667,489.  

#4. San Bernardino, California (San Bernardino County)

Living in San Bernardino comes with its fair share of challenges, from increased heat and fire risks to the looming threat of floods, all leading to an expected annual financial burden of $1,137,542,458. While its risk score closely aligns with other vulnerable counties on our list, sitting at 99.85 out of 100, the county does have a slightly higher community resilience score of 42.11 out of 100, according to FEMA. 

#5. Oakland, California (Alameda County)

Living on the Hayward Fault means that Alameda County residents are neighbors with one of the most dangerous faults in the U.S., which is why the Oakland area carries a risk score of 99.91 out of 100, according to FEMA. However, compared to other counties within the top 5 ranking, Alameda ranks higher in terms of community resilience, but has a relatively moderate social vulnerability score. Overall, the county’s expected annual loss to weather and natural disasters is $1,212,128,362.

Worst States for Natural Disasters

To measure disaster impact on the state level, we analyzed each state’s number of disaster declarations over the last decade as well as expected annual loss score, which represents the expected average loss in dollars to infrastructure, population, and agriculture per year, according to FEMA.

Warm climates and coastal access are desirable features on the American real estate market, but they can also create pressures from a severe weather standpoint. California, with the most disaster declarations of any state by a wide margin, is the worst state for natural disasters, followed by Florida, Texas, North Carolina, and Washington. 

#1. California

Home to four out of the five most at-risk counties in the nation, it’s no surprise that California is the worst state for natural disasters. What is surprising is how many more natural disasters California has declared than any other state. Between 2014 and 2024, the state of California declared 155 disasters; the next closest state is Washington, with 88 disasters declared in that same timespan. It’s a costly legacy – expected annual losses due to climate disasters in California is calculated to be $16,334,271,892.

Expected annual loss: $16,334,271,892

Number of disaster declarations (2014-2024): 155 

#2. Florida

Florida’s warm coastal waters are both a gift and a curse – the glittering Gulf of Mexico invites major hurricanes with destructive winds, storm surges, and heavy rainfall. Over the last decade, several major storms have battered the Florida coastline, and 42 disaster declarations have been made by FEMA.

Expected annual loss: $9,093,861,693 

Number of disaster declarations (2014-2024): 42

#3. Texas

Texas’ unique geographic location and weather patterns make it a grab-bag of potential disaster events, including Hurricane Harvey in 2017 and Winter Storm Uri in 2021. From droughts to hurricanes to wildfires, Texans must be prepared for it all. Since 2014, the state of Texas has made 39 disaster declarations, and expected annual losses total $8,239,703,237. 

Expected annual loss: $8,239,703,237

Number of disaster declarations (2014-2024): 39

#4. North Carolina

In 2018, North Carolina endured two hurricanes that each caused billions of dollars in damage and a major winter storm in the space of just four months. Weather can change on a dime in the “Tar Heel State,” and each year brings new disaster declarations. Since 2014, 35 official declarations have been made, and disaster events have caused an expected annual loss of $2,584,501,883. 

Expected annual loss: $2,584,501,883

Number of disaster declarations (2014-2024): 35

#5. Washington

Swinging from flooding and landslides to 2021’s deadly “heat dome”, where temperatures rose to nearly 30 degrees above average, Washington state is perennially grappling with at least a few climate-related events each year. Since 2014, 19 disaster declarations have been issued in the state, and the state has an expected annual loss of $2,502,437,158, according to FEMA.

Expected annual loss: $2,502,437,158

Number of disaster declarations (2014-2024): 19

Are Homeowners Prepared for Natural Disasters?

Despite the increase in severe weather events, many homeowners aren’t prepared for an emergency. 

According to our nationwide survey of 1,500 Americans, 61% say they do not have an emergency plan for severe weather events. More than half (52%) do not have an emergency supply kit in their homes if a disaster strikes. 

Not only can preparedness keep you physically safe from severe weather, but it can also reduce damage to your home and potentially prevent you from filing a home insurance claim.  

Taking small preventative measures such as protecting doors and windows can keep your home more secure in the event of severe weather, according to ClaimGuide.org insurance specialist, Gerard Reczek, who has more than 40 years of experience as a broker and underwriter.  

“Boarding windows and doors to protect against strong winds, using sandbags and other water diversion tactics to protect against rising waters and floods, and removing large trees close to your home can be very effective preventive tactics in minimizing potential loss,” said Reczek, an Excess and Surplus Lines Insurance Specialist.

Also, it’s important to take the initiative and review your homeowner’s insurance policy before severe weather strikes. You don’t want to be caught off guard and left without coverage or face a lack of coverage if your home is damaged.

“Understanding potential hazards and exposures to your area and home allows you to address any concerns in advance,” said Reczek. “Reading policy exclusions for flood, wind, and earthquake will direct you to policy limitations you should address. Taking ownership in policy coverage and policy exclusions should prevent any surprises after a loss.”

According to our survey, more than one in four (28%) have experienced a severe weather event in the last five years such as a hurricane, tornado or flooding. If your home is damaged by severe weather, it’s crucial to take responsible action after the storm has passed and when it’s safe to return to your home to limit further damage. 

“Taking responsible action and protecting against additional damage after a loss is always recommended,” said Reczek. “Removing water, water damage material, bringing in fans and dehumidifiers promptly is a responsible action to protect against mold that can result after water damage.”

In 2014, our nation crossed a climate cost Rubicon in terms of the number of weather events causing more than $1 billion in damage. Since then, each year has brought at least 10 separate billion-dollar disaster events, with that number doubling or almost tripling in the most recent years on record. 

This begs the question: How many billion-dollar climate events should we expect in 2034? At the current rate of escalation, the U.S. could experience 30 or 40 of these events in a single year. 

According to respondents, many are preparing to relocate to avoid severe weather. Overall, nearly one-third are considering a move to a more climate-resilient area. Regardless of where you live, it’s crucial to keep both your family as well as your home safe, and, most of all, to expect the unexpected when it comes to severe weather. 

Methodology – Risk Assessment:

To determine our ranking, we analyzed data from FEMA’s National Risk Index, which includes data from more than 3,200 counties across the United States, Puerto Rico, and U.S. territories. Counties are ranked on an overall risk score for 18 different natural hazards. The Risk Index includes three key metrics: 

Expected Annual Loss: Represents the average loss in dollars to buildings, population, and/or agriculture each year due to natural hazards. 

Community Resilience: Represents the ability of a community to prepare for anticipated natural hazards, adapt to changing conditions, and withstand and recover rapidly from disruptions. 

Social Vulnerability: Represents the susceptibility of social groups to the adverse impacts of natural hazards, including disproportionate death, injury, loss, or disruption of livelihood. This includes high poverty, low percentage of vehicle access, or crowded households, which may affect a community’s ability to prevent human suffering and financial loss in the event of disaster.

Methodology – Nationwide Survey:

In May 2024, we conducted a nationwide survey of 1,500 Americans to gain insight into their level of preparedness for natural disasters and severe weather. The survey respondents included 37% males, 60% females, and 3% identifying as non-binary/non-conforming. The average age of respondents was 39 years. The survey responses rely on self-reporting, which may be subject to recall bias or social desirability bias. The collected data underwent quantitative analysis to identify trends, patterns, and correlations related to severe weather preparedness. 

Income: Under $25,000 (18%); $25,000-$34,999 (10%); $35,000-$49,999 (14%); $50,000-$74,999 (21%); $75,000-$99,999 (15%); $100,000-$149,999 (14%), $150,000 or over (8%).

Sources: Federal Emergency Management Agency National Risk Index, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters (2024), U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) 2022

Fair Use: Feel free to use this data and research with proper attribution linking to this study.

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